Market Briefing

ISM Manufacturing PMI — June 2026

Headline: The Manufacturing PMI fell 0.7 point to 53.3 in June, signaling continued expansion at a slower rate for the sixth consecutive month. The reading was above the prior six-month average of 52.1 and within the 47.9–54.0 range. Manufacturing remained above its 50.0 breakeven, while the broader economy also registered growth relative to its 47.5 breakeven.

Sub-indices:

Index	Level	Prior	Change	Direction	vs 6-mo.
New Orders	56.0	56.8	-0.8	Growing	above avg (54.2)
Production	52.2	54.3	-2.1	Growing	below avg (53.9)
Employment	49.7	48.6	+1.1	Contracting	6-mo high
Supplier Deliveries	57.4	60.6	-3.2	Slowing	above avg (56.7)
Inventories	51.4	49.9	+1.5	Growing	6-mo high
Customers' Inventories	42.3	42.7	-0.4	Too Low	above avg (40.4)
Prices	73.0	82.1	-9.1	Increasing	above avg (72.2)
Backlog of Orders	50.5	52.2	-1.7	Growing	below avg (52.0)
New Export Orders	48.5	50.6	-2.1	Contracting	below avg (49.3)
Imports	52.9	53.0	-0.1	Growing	above avg (50.9)

Key moves:

• Employment improved 1.1 points to 49.7, a six-month high, but remained below 50 and therefore still indicated net manufacturing job contraction.
• Inventories rose 1.5 points to 51.4, crossing above 50 and reaching a six-month high.
• New Export Orders fell 2.1 points to 48.5, crossing from growth into contraction; Production also weakened to 52.2, below its six-month average.

Insights:

• Demand remained the principal support: New Orders at 56.0 were well above 50 and above their six-month average. The inventory increase therefore appears at least partly deliberate, although the easing Backlog index at 50.5 signals limited additional production visibility.
• Customers’ Inventories remained “too low” at 42.3, a bullish forward signal for replenishment demand. The reading was above its six-month average but still materially below 50, indicating the channel was not overstocked.
• Supplier Deliveries at 57.4 still indicated slower deliveries, consistent with ongoing demand or supply-chain tightness, though the sharp decline from 60.6 points to lessening pressure at the margin.
• Employment improved but remained contractionary—a clear change-versus-direction divergence. Labor demand is recovering from a prolonged period of shedding, but has not yet returned to net hiring.
• Prices fell sharply to 73.0 from 82.1, reducing the pace of input-cost escalation, but remained above 50 and slightly above the six-month average, leaving continued margin and goods-inflation pressure.

Breadth & prices: All 14 reported industries expanded, while none contracted. Input prices continued to increase, with the Prices index at 73.0, albeit at a slower rate.

Takeaway: June’s print describes a manufacturing expansion that remains broad and demand-supported, but is losing momentum through softer Production, Backlogs and exports. The six-month trend is still constructive for the cycle, while elevated input costs and sub-50 employment argue against an unambiguously strong macro signal.

ISM Manufacturing PMI — May 2026

Headline: The Manufacturing PMI rose 1.3 points to 54.0 in May, signaling expansion at a faster rate for the fifth consecutive month. The reading was a 6-month high, versus a trailing six-month average of 51.1 and prior range of 47.9–52.7. Manufacturing remained above its 50.0 breakeven, while the broader economy continued to grow for the 19th straight month, above its 47.5 breakeven.

Sub-indices:

Index	Level	Prior	Change	Direction	vs 6-mo
New Orders	56.8	54.1	+2.7	Growing	above avg (52.6)
Production	54.3	53.4	+0.9	Growing	above avg (53.4)
Employment	48.6	46.4	+2.2	Contracting	above avg (46.8)
Supplier Deliveries	60.6	60.6	0.0	Slowing	above avg (54.9)
Inventories	49.9	49.0	+0.9	Contracting	6-mo high
Customers' Inventories	42.7	39.1	+3.6	Too Low	above avg (40.8)
Prices	82.1	84.6	-2.5	Increasing	above avg (68.2)
Backlog of Orders	52.2	51.4	+0.8	Growing	above avg (50.6)
New Export Orders	50.6	47.9	+2.7	Growing	6-mo high
Imports	53.0	50.3	+2.7	Growing	above avg (50.2)

Key moves:

• The headline PMI reached a 6-month high, with New Orders at 56.8, well above its six-month average of 52.6.
• New Export Orders rose to a 6-month high of 50.6, crossing from contraction to expansion.
• Employment improved to 48.6, its highest level in the six-month window, but remained below 50; Inventories also reached a 6-month high of 49.9 while still contracting.

Insights:

• The demand signal strengthened materially: New Orders accelerated to 56.8, while Backlog of Orders rose to 52.2. With both above 50 and above their six-month averages, the forward production pipeline remains constructive.
• Manufacturers’ inventories stayed just below 50 at 49.9, indicating continued contraction rather than an accumulation. Given stronger New Orders and Backlogs, the lean inventory position appears more consistent with replenishment demand than an involuntary buildup.
• Customers’ Inventories remained “too low” at 42.7. As an inverse indicator, this supports future production and ordering, although the reading improved from 39.1, reducing the degree of channel tightness.
• Supplier Deliveries at 60.6 indicate slower deliveries, not faster ones. The elevated level—well above the six-month average of 54.9—is consistent with sustained demand and/or supply-chain tightness.
• Price pressure remained acute: Prices registered 82.1, despite easing 2.5 points. The level is substantially above its six-month average of 68.2, implying continued input-cost and goods-inflation risk for manufacturers.

Breadth & prices: All 16 industries reported growth, with zero industries contracting. Input prices continued to increase, though at a slower rate than in April.

Takeaway: May’s print points to a broad-based strengthening in the manufacturing cycle, led by orders, exports and a healthy backlog, with the PMI at a six-month high. The main offsets are persistent input-cost pressure and continued manufacturing job contraction, suggesting stronger output momentum without a comparable labor-market recovery.

ISM Manufacturing PMI — April 2026

Headline: The ISM Manufacturing PMI was 52.7 in April, unchanged from March, indicating manufacturing expanded for a fourth consecutive month. The reading matches the top of its prior six-month range (47.9–52.7) and is above the six-month average of 50.4. It also remains above the manufacturing breakeven of 50.0 and the broader-economy breakeven of 47.5, consistent with growth in both manufacturing and the overall economy.

Sub-indices:

Index	Level	Prior	Change	Direction	vs 6-mo
New Orders	54.1	53.5	+0.6	Growing	above avg (51.8)
Production	53.4	55.1	-1.7	Growing	above avg (52.5)
Employment	46.4	48.7	-2.3	Contracting	below avg (46.8)
Supplier Deliveries	60.6	58.9	+1.7	Slowing	6-mo high
Inventories	49.0	47.1	+1.9	Contracting	6-mo high
Customers' Inventories	39.1	40.1	-1.0	Too Low	below avg (41.6)
Prices	84.6	78.3	+6.3	Increasing	6-mo high
Backlog of Orders	51.4	54.4	-3.0	Growing	above avg (50.0)
New Export Orders	47.9	49.9	-2.0	Contracting	below avg (48.0)
Imports	50.3	52.6	-2.3	Growing	above avg (49.4)

Key moves:

• Supplier Deliveries rose to 60.6, a six-month high, signaling materially slower deliveries versus the prior six-month window.
• Prices climbed 6.3 points to 84.6, also a six-month high and the sharpest cost-pressure reading in the period.
• New Export Orders fell from 49.9 to 47.9, crossing below the 50 threshold into contraction; Inventories rose to a six-month high but remained below 50.

Insights:

• The demand mix remains constructive: New Orders at 54.1 accelerated and Backlog at 51.4 continued to grow, while customers’ inventories stayed “too low” at 39.1. The latter is bullish for replenishment demand and future production.
• The rise in manufacturers’ inventories to 49.0 appears more consistent with positioning for ongoing orders than an outright demand-driven buildup, given rising New Orders, positive Backlog, and low customer inventories. However, Production slowed to 53.4, tempering the near-term output signal.
• Supplier Deliveries at 60.6 indicates substantially slower deliveries, consistent with demand or supply-chain tightness rather than slack. This reinforces the expansion signal but raises execution and input-cost risks.
• Labor remains the clearest soft spot: Employment fell to 46.4, contracting faster and below its six-month average despite the headline PMI remaining in expansion. This is a notable divergence between output growth and factory hiring.
• The combination of Prices at 84.6, widespread commodity increases, and reported shortages in electronic and electrical components points to intensifying input-cost and margin pressure, with potential goods-inflation implications.

Breadth & prices: All 13 listed industries reported growth, while none reported contraction. Input prices were sharply higher, with the Prices index increasing to 84.6.

Takeaway: April’s print confirms a broad-based but uneven manufacturing expansion: orders, backlogs, low customer inventories, and constrained deliveries support the cycle, while weaker employment, slowing production, softer exports, and record-high price pressure are important offsets. The six-month improvement in the headline PMI is therefore accompanied by rising inflation and supply-side risks rather than a clean acceleration in real activity.

ISM Manufacturing PMI — March 2026

Headline: The Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 from 52.4, signaling expansion at a faster rate for the third consecutive month. The reading was a six-month high, above the prior six-month range of 47.9–52.6 and the 49.8 six-month average. The broader economy was also growing: the PMI remained above the 47.5 economy-wide breakeven, while manufacturing was above its 50.0 breakeven.

Sub-indices:

Index	Level	Prior	Change	Direction	vs 6-mo
New Orders	53.5	55.8	-2.3	Growing	above avg (51.1)
Production	55.1	53.5	+1.6	Growing	above avg (51.8)
Employment	48.7	48.8	-0.1	Contracting	above avg (46.2)
Supplier Deliveries	58.9	55.1	+3.8	Slowing	6-mo high
Inventories	47.1	48.8	-1.7	Contracting	below avg (47.3)
Customers' Inventories	40.1	38.8	+1.3	Too Low	below avg (42.2)
Prices	78.3	70.5	+7.8	Increasing	6-mo high
Backlog of Orders	54.4	56.6	-2.2	Growing	above avg (48.7)
New Export Orders	49.9	50.3	-0.4	Contracting	above avg (46.8)
Imports	52.6	54.9	-2.3	Growing	above avg (48.1)

Key moves:

• The headline PMI, Supplier Deliveries and Prices all reached six-month highs; Prices rose 7.8 points to 78.3.
• New Export Orders slipped to 49.9 from 50.3, crossing below the 50 breakeven into contraction, despite remaining above its six-month average.
• Production strengthened to 55.1, while New Orders eased to 53.5; both remained above their six-month averages, but orders lost momentum.

Insights:

• The production pipeline remains constructive but is cooling at the margin. New Orders remain expansionary at 53.5, Backlog of Orders at 54.4, and Inventories contracted to 47.1. The combination of orders above inventories suggests no evidence of an involuntary inventory buildup and supports continued production, although slower order growth bears watching.
• Customers’ Inventories remained deeply “Too Low” at 40.1, a bullish leading signal for replenishment demand. The reading is below its 42.2 six-month average, indicating limited channel stock and potential support for future orders.
• Supplier Deliveries rose to 58.9, a six-month high. Under ISM convention, this indicates slower deliveries and is consistent with stronger demand and/or supply-chain tightness rather than weak activity.
• Labor remains the weak link: Employment was 48.7, contracting for the 30th month and edging lower from 48.8. Manufacturing output is expanding without a corresponding recovery in net hiring.
• Cost pressure intensified sharply. Prices reached 78.3, well above the 61.1 six-month average, raising risks to manufacturer margins and goods-inflation persistence.

Breadth & prices: All 13 listed industries reported growth, while none reported contraction. Input prices were increasing at a faster rate, with the Prices index at 78.3, its highest level in six months.

Takeaway: March confirms a broad-based manufacturing expansion and a six-month high in the headline index, led by production, low customer inventories and elevated backlogs. However, easing new orders, contracting employment and a sharp acceleration in input prices point to a cycle that is expanding with rising cost and labor constraints.

ISM Manufacturing PMI — February 2026

Headline: The ISM Manufacturing PMI was 52.4, indicating manufacturing expanded for a second consecutive month, although growth slowed 0.2 points from January’s 52.6. The reading is above the trailing six-month average of 49.2 and just below the period high of 52.6 (range: 47.9–52.6). The broader economy remained in expansion relative to its 47.5 breakeven level.

Sub-indices:

Index	Level	Prior	Change	Direction	vs 6-mo
New Orders	55.8	57.1	-1.3	Growing	above avg (50.3)
Production	53.5	55.9	-2.4	Growing	above avg (50.9)
Employment	48.8	48.1	+0.7	Contracting	6-mo high
Supplier Deliveries	55.1	54.4	+0.7	Slowing	6-mo high
Inventories	48.8	47.6	+1.2	Contracting	above avg (47.4)
Customers' Inventories	38.8	38.7	+0.1	Too Low	below avg (43.2)
Prices	70.5	59.0	+11.5	Increasing	6-mo high
Backlog of Orders	56.6	51.6	+5.0	Growing	6-mo high
New Export Orders	50.3	50.2	+0.1	Growing	6-mo high
Imports	54.9	50.0	+4.9	Growing	6-mo high

Key moves:

• Prices surged to 70.5, a six-month high and well above the prior six-month maximum of 63.7.
• Backlog of Orders rose five points to 56.6, also a six-month high, while Supplier Deliveries reached a six-month high at 55.1.
• Employment improved to its six-month high of 48.8, but remained below 50 and therefore continued to signal contraction.

Insights:

• The demand picture remains constructive but moderated: New Orders at 55.8 and Production at 53.5 stayed above 50 and above their six-month averages, despite monthly declines. The five-point increase in Backlog of Orders to 56.6 provides stronger forward support for production.
• The Inventories index rose 1.2 points but remained contracting at 48.8. Given still-expanding New Orders and the sharp backlog increase, the data do not point to an involuntary inventory buildup; constrained inventories may instead leave manufacturers positioned to respond to demand.
• Customers’ Inventories at 38.8 remain well below 50 and below the six-month average, indicating “too low” channel inventories. As a contrarian signal, this is supportive of future replenishment demand.
• Supplier Deliveries at 55.1 indicates slower deliveries and a six-month high, consistent with demand strength and/or supply tightness. The concurrent rise in Imports to 54.9 points to increased supply-chain activity rather than broad manufacturing slack.
• Input-cost pressure intensified materially: Prices at 70.5, up 11.5 points and at a six-month high, raises risks to manufacturer margins and goods inflation. Employment improved month over month but remained below 50, marking a slower rate of job contraction rather than net hiring.

Breadth & prices: All 12 listed industries reported growth and none reported contraction. Input prices increased at a faster rate, with the Prices index rising sharply to 70.5.

Takeaway: February’s print confirms a modest manufacturing expansion, with forward-demand and backlog indicators stronger than the headline’s small decline suggests. The key macro offset is the sharp acceleration in input costs, alongside an employment index that remains below 50.

ISM Manufacturing PMI — January 2026

Headline: The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 from 47.9, a 4.7-point increase, marking a return to expansion after 12 months of contraction. The current trend has run for 1 month. The reading is a 6-month high, well above the prior six-month average of 48.4 and the 47.9–49.1 range. It also indicates a growing broader economy, with the PMI above the overall-economy breakeven of 47.5.

Sub-indices:

Index	Level	Prior	Change	Direction	vs 6-mo
New Orders	57.1	47.4	+9.7	Growing	6-mo high
Production	55.9	50.7	+5.2	Growing	6-mo high
Employment	48.1	44.8	+3.3	Contracting	6-mo high
Supplier Deliveries	54.4	50.8	+3.6	Slowing	6-mo high
Inventories	47.6	45.7	+1.9	Contracting	above avg (47.6)
Customers' Inventories	38.7	43.3	-4.6	Too Low	6-mo low
Prices	59.0	58.5	+0.5	Increasing	below avg (60.9)
Backlog of Orders	51.6	45.8	+5.8	Growing	6-mo high
New Export Orders	50.2	46.8	+3.4	Growing	6-mo high
Imports	50.0	44.6	+5.4	Unchanged	6-mo high

Key moves:

• New Orders and Production reached 6-month highs at 57.1 and 55.9, respectively; both moved from below to above the 50 breakeven.
• Backlog of Orders crossed into expansion at 51.6, also a 6-month high, while New Export Orders reached 50.2 from 46.8.
• Customers’ Inventories fell to a 6-month low of 38.7, signaling an increasingly understocked downstream channel. Employment improved to a 6-month high but remained below 50.

Insights:

• The demand signal strengthened materially: New Orders rose to 57.1, Backlog to 51.6, and Production to 55.9. The combination points to improving near-term production momentum rather than an inventory-led rebound.
• Manufacturers’ own Inventories remained in contraction at 47.6, even as orders and backlogs surged. This is consistent with lean stocks against stronger demand, rather than an involuntary buildup.
• Customers’ Inventories at 38.7 are “too low” and at a 6-month low, a bullish forward signal under ISM methodology: customers may need to replenish, supporting future orders and production.
• Supplier Deliveries rose to 54.4, a 6-month high in the slowing-deliveries direction. Alongside reported shortages in electronic and electrical components, this suggests stronger demand and some supply-chain tightness.
• Employment remains a constraint: the index improved by 3.3 points but stayed below 50 at 48.1, indicating continued net manufacturing job shedding. Prices at 59.0 indicate ongoing input-cost increases, although the level remains below the six-month average of 60.9.

Breadth & prices: Nine industries reported growth and none reported contraction. Input prices continued to increase, with the Prices index at 59.0, up 0.5 point month over month.

Takeaway: January’s print signals a meaningful, broad-based turn in the manufacturing cycle, led by orders, production, and backlogs at six-month highs. The outlook is constructive for goods activity

ISM Manufacturing PMI — December 2025

Headline: The Manufacturing PMI fell 0.3 points to 47.9, signaling contraction for the 10th consecutive month. The reading was a 6-month low, below the prior six-month average of 48.6 and the 48.0–49.1 range. Manufacturing remained below its 50.0 breakeven, although the broader economy was still classified as growing, above its 42.3 breakeven.

Sub-indices:

Index	Level	Prior	Change	Direction	vs 6-mo
New Orders	47.7	47.4	+0.3	Contracting	below avg (48.4)
Production	51.0	51.4	-0.4	Growing	above avg (50.0)
Employment	44.9	44.0	+0.9	Contracting	above avg (44.6)
Supplier Deliveries	50.8	49.3	+1.5	Slowing	below avg (51.8)
Inventories	45.2	48.9	-3.7	Contracting	6-mo low
Customers' Inventories	43.3	44.7	-1.4	Too Low	6-mo low
Prices	58.5	58.5	0.0	Increasing	below avg (62.8)
Backlog of Orders	45.8	44.0	+1.8	Contracting	above avg (45.7)
New Export Orders	46.8	46.2	+0.6	Contracting	above avg (45.6)
Imports	44.6	48.9	-4.3	Contracting	6-mo low

Key moves:

• Inventories dropped 3.7 points to 45.2, a six-month low and well below its 48.3 six-month average.
• Imports fell 4.3 points to 44.6, also a six-month low; Customers’ Inventories declined to 43.3, a six-month low.
• Supplier Deliveries crossed above 50, rising from 49.3 to 50.8—a shift from faster to slower deliveries.

Insights:

• Forward demand remains soft: New Orders improved 0.3 points but stayed in contraction at 47.7, while Backlogs remained below 50 at 45.8 despite a 1.8-point improvement. The increase in both measures is not yet sufficient to signal a sustained production upswing.
• The sharp decline in manufacturers’ Inventories does not look like deliberate accumulation ahead of stronger orders: inventories contracted faster while New Orders remained below 50. This points to drawdown amid weak

ISM Manufacturing PMI — November 2025

Headline: The Manufacturing PMI fell 0.5 point to 48.2 from 48.7, indicating contraction for the ninth consecutive month, with the rate of contraction faster. The reading was below its trailing six-month average of 48.7 and within the prior range of 48.0–49.1, near the six-month low. Manufacturing remained below its 50.0 breakeven, although the broader economy was still growing; the PMI was above the overall-economy breakeven of 42.3.

Sub-indices:

Index	Level	Prior	Change	Direction	vs 6-mo
New Orders	47.4	49.4	-2	Contracting	below avg (48.5)
Production	51.4	48.2	3.2	Growing	above avg (49.0)
Employment	44	46	-2	Contracting	below avg (45.1)
Supplier Deliveries	49.3	54.2	-4.9	Faster	below avg (53.0)
Inventories	48.9	45.8	3.1	Contracting	above avg (47.9)
Customers' Inventories	44.7	43.9	0.8	Too Low	below avg (44.8)
Prices	58.5	58	0.5	Increasing	below avg (64.6)
Backlog of Orders	44	47.9	-3.9	Contracting	6-mo low
New Export Orders	46.2	44.5	1.7	Contracting	above avg (44.6)
Imports	48.9	45.4	3.5	Contracting	6-mo high

Key moves:

• Production crossed back above 50, rising to 51.4 from 48.2 and reaching the top of its six-month range, despite New Orders remaining in contraction.
• Backlog of Orders fell to a six-month low of 44, while Employment declined to 44, below its six-month average and marking a faster rate of contraction.
• Imports rose to a six-month high of 48.9, and New Export Orders improved to 46.2, though both remained below 50.

Insights:

• The production rebound appears weakly supported by demand: New Orders fell to 47.4, Backlogs reached a six-month low, and Inventories rose to 48.9 while orders declined. The inventory increase therefore looks more like an involuntary buildup than deliberate stocking for stronger demand.
• Customers’ Inventories remained “Too Low” at 44.7, a typically constructive signal for future replenishment, but the benefit is constrained by the deterioration in New Orders and the prolonged backlog contraction.
• Supplier Deliveries shifted from slower to faster performance, falling to 49.3 from 54.2. Below 50, this points more to reduced demand-related pressure and improved delivery speed than to supply-chain tightness.
• Prices rose at a faster rate to 58.5, indicating continued input-cost pressure and potential margin or goods-inflation headwinds, although the reading remained below its six-month average of 64.6.
• Employment contracted at 44, its tenth consecutive month below 50 and below its six-month average, reinforcing that the production improvement has not yet translated into manufacturing labor demand.

Breadth & prices: Four industries reported growth—Computer & Electronic Products, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products, Miscellaneous Manufacturing, and Machinery—and no industries were listed as contracting. Input prices increased at a faster rate, with the Prices Index at 58.5.

Takeaway: November’s print signals a manufacturing cycle still in contraction, characterized by weak forward demand, falling backlogs, and sustained job shedding. The one-month production rebound and low customer inventories offer potential support for future activity, but the six-month pattern does

ISM Manufacturing PMI — October 2025

Headline: The Manufacturing PMI fell 0.4 point to 48.7, indicating contraction for the eighth consecutive month, with the rate of contraction faster than in September. The reading matches its trailing six-month average of 48.7 and remains within the 48.0–49.1 range. Manufacturing remained below its 50.0 breakeven, although the broader economy was still growing: 48.7 is above the economy-wide breakeven of 42.3.

Sub-indices:

Index	Level	Prior	Change	Direction	vs 6-mo
New Orders	49.4	48.9	+0.5	Contracting	above avg (48.1)
Production	48.2	51.0	-2.8	Contracting	below avg (48.3)
Employment	46.0	45.3	+0.7	Contracting	above avg (45.1)
Supplier Deliveries	54.2	52.6	+1.6	Slowing	above avg (53.1)
Inventories	45.8	47.7	-1.9	Contracting	6-mo low
Customers' Inventories	43.9	43.7	+0.2	Too Low	below avg (45.2)
Prices	58.0	61.9	-3.9	Increasing	6-mo low
Backlog of Orders	47.9	46.2	+1.7	Contracting	6-mo high
New Export Orders	44.5	43.0	+1.5	Contracting	above avg (44.4)
Imports	45.4	44.7	+0.7	Contracting	below avg (45.5)

Key moves:

• Production fell 2.8 points, crossing from expansion in September (51.0) into contraction at 48.2, and moved below its six-month average.
• Manufacturers’ inventories dropped to 45.8, a six-month low, while Backlog of Orders rose to a six-month high of 47.9.
• Prices declined 3.9 points to 58.0, also a six-month low, though input costs continued to increase.

Insights:

• The demand picture improved at the margin but remained soft: New Orders rose to 49.4, still below 50, while Backlogs improved to 47.9 and reached a six-month high. This combination points to a modestly better forward pipeline, but not yet to sustained production growth.
• The decline in manufacturers’ inventories does not signal an involuntary buildup. With New Orders improving, Backlogs rising and customers’ inventories at 43.9 (“too low”), the inventory drawdown is consistent with lean channel stocks and potential future replenishment demand.
• Supplier Deliveries rose to 54.2, indicating slower deliveries. In the context of contracting output, this is a demand-positive or supply-constraint signal rather than evidence of slack, although the data do not distinguish between the two.
• Employment improved 0.7 point to 46.0 but remained in contraction for the ninth month, so the production setback continues to be accompanied by net manufacturing job shedding.
• Prices remained elevated at 58.0, implying ongoing input-cost pressure, but the six-month low and 3.9-point decline indicate meaningful easing in goods-inflation and margin pressure relative to recent months.

Breadth & prices: Six industries reported growth—Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products—and none were listed as contracting. Input prices continued to increase, though the Prices index eased to 58.0.

Takeaway: October’s print depicts a manufacturing sector still in a shallow, eight-month contraction, with production weakening and employment remaining soft. Improving orders and backlogs, lean customer inventories and easing price pressure

ISM Manufacturing PMI — September 2025

Headline: The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose 0.4 point to 49.1, indicating manufacturing contracted for the seventh consecutive month. The reading was a 6-month high, above the prior six-month average of 48.6 and just above the six-month range of 48.0–49.0. Manufacturing remained below its 50.0 breakeven, but the broader economy continued to grow; the PMI was above the overall-economy breakeven of 42.3.

Sub-indices:

Index	Level	Prior	Change	Direction	vs 6-mo
New Orders	48.9	51.4	-2.5	Contracting	above avg (47.5)
Production	51	47.8	3.2	Growing	above avg (47.9)
Employment	45.3	43.8	1.5	Contracting	above avg (45.0)
Supplier Deliveries	52.6	51.3	1.3	Slowing	below avg (53.3)
Inventories	47.7	49.4	-1.7	Contracting	below avg (49.7)
Customers' Inventories	43.7	44.6	-0.9	Too Low	6-mo low
Prices	61.9	63.7	-1.8	Increasing	6-mo low
Backlog of Orders	46.2	44.7	1.5	Contracting	above avg (45.2)
New Export Orders	43	47.6	-4.6	Contracting	below avg (45.5)
Imports	44.7	46	-1.3	Contracting	below avg (46.4)

Key moves:

• Production crossed back above 50, rising 3.2 points to 51, while New Orders fell below 50 from 51.4 to 48.9.
• Customers’ Inventories reached a 6-month low of 43.7, reinforcing a potential reorder signal.
• Prices fell to a 6-month low of 61.9, while New Export Orders dropped 4.6 points and remained well below their six-month average.

Insights:

• The production rebound is not yet supported by current demand: New Orders contracted at 48.9, and New Export Orders weakened to 43.0. The simultaneous contraction in manufacturers’ Inventories to 47.7 points to leaner stocks rather than an inventory buildup ahead of stronger orders.
• Customers’ Inventories at 43.7—the lowest reading in six months and classified as “Too Low”—is a constructive forward signal, as low channel inventories can require replenishment. This is tempered by the continued contraction in Backlogs, now at 46.2 after 36 months below 50.
• Supplier Deliveries at 52.6 indicate slower deliveries, consistent with some demand or supply-chain tightness, although the reading remained below its six-month average of 53.3. The signal is therefore supportive but not indicative of a broad acceleration.
• Several month-over-month improvements remain below 50: Employment rose 1.5 points but stayed in contraction at 45.3, and the headline PMI improved while manufacturing remained in contraction. Labor demand therefore remains a material drag.
• Input-cost pressure eased but remained elevated: Prices declined 1.8 points to 61.9, still indicating rising costs and continued margin and goods-inflation pressure despite being a six-month low.

Breadth & prices: Five industries reported growth and none were listed as contracting. Input prices continued to increase, but at a slower rate, with the Prices index at 61.9.

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