ISM Manufacturing PMI — December 2025
Headline: The Manufacturing PMI fell 0.3 points to 47.9, signaling contraction for the 10th consecutive month. The reading was a 6-month low, below the prior six-month average of 48.6 and the 48.0–49.1 range. Manufacturing remained below its 50.0 breakeven, although the broader economy was still classified as growing, above its 42.3 breakeven.
Sub-indices:
| Index | Level | Prior | Change | Direction | vs 6-mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 47.7 | 47.4 | +0.3 | Contracting | below avg (48.4) |
| Production | 51.0 | 51.4 | -0.4 | Growing | above avg (50.0) |
| Employment | 44.9 | 44.0 | +0.9 | Contracting | above avg (44.6) |
| Supplier Deliveries | 50.8 | 49.3 | +1.5 | Slowing | below avg (51.8) |
| Inventories | 45.2 | 48.9 | -3.7 | Contracting | 6-mo low |
| Customers' Inventories | 43.3 | 44.7 | -1.4 | Too Low | 6-mo low |
| Prices | 58.5 | 58.5 | 0.0 | Increasing | below avg (62.8) |
| Backlog of Orders | 45.8 | 44.0 | +1.8 | Contracting | above avg (45.7) |
| New Export Orders | 46.8 | 46.2 | +0.6 | Contracting | above avg (45.6) |
| Imports | 44.6 | 48.9 | -4.3 | Contracting | 6-mo low |
Key moves:
- Inventories dropped 3.7 points to 45.2, a six-month low and well below its 48.3 six-month average.
- Imports fell 4.3 points to 44.6, also a six-month low; Customers’ Inventories declined to 43.3, a six-month low.
- Supplier Deliveries crossed above 50, rising from 49.3 to 50.8—a shift from faster to slower deliveries.
Insights:
- Forward demand remains soft: New Orders improved 0.3 points but stayed in contraction at 47.7, while Backlogs remained below 50 at 45.8 despite a 1.8-point improvement. The increase in both measures is not yet sufficient to signal a sustained production upswing.
- The sharp decline in manufacturers’ Inventories does not look like deliberate accumulation ahead of stronger orders: inventories contracted faster while New Orders remained below 50. This points to drawdown amid weak