ISM Manufacturing PMI — February 2026
Headline: The ISM Manufacturing PMI was 52.4, indicating manufacturing expanded for a second consecutive month, although growth slowed 0.2 points from January’s 52.6. The reading is above the trailing six-month average of 49.2 and just below the period high of 52.6 (range: 47.9–52.6). The broader economy remained in expansion relative to its 47.5 breakeven level.
Sub-indices:
| Index | Level | Prior | Change | Direction | vs 6-mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 55.8 | 57.1 | -1.3 | Growing | above avg (50.3) |
| Production | 53.5 | 55.9 | -2.4 | Growing | above avg (50.9) |
| Employment | 48.8 | 48.1 | +0.7 | Contracting | 6-mo high |
| Supplier Deliveries | 55.1 | 54.4 | +0.7 | Slowing | 6-mo high |
| Inventories | 48.8 | 47.6 | +1.2 | Contracting | above avg (47.4) |
| Customers' Inventories | 38.8 | 38.7 | +0.1 | Too Low | below avg (43.2) |
| Prices | 70.5 | 59.0 | +11.5 | Increasing | 6-mo high |
| Backlog of Orders | 56.6 | 51.6 | +5.0 | Growing | 6-mo high |
| New Export Orders | 50.3 | 50.2 | +0.1 | Growing | 6-mo high |
| Imports | 54.9 | 50.0 | +4.9 | Growing | 6-mo high |
Key moves:
- Prices surged to 70.5, a six-month high and well above the prior six-month maximum of 63.7.
- Backlog of Orders rose five points to 56.6, also a six-month high, while Supplier Deliveries reached a six-month high at 55.1.
- Employment improved to its six-month high of 48.8, but remained below 50 and therefore continued to signal contraction.
Insights:
- The demand picture remains constructive but moderated: New Orders at 55.8 and Production at 53.5 stayed above 50 and above their six-month averages, despite monthly declines. The five-point increase in Backlog of Orders to 56.6 provides stronger forward support for production.
- The Inventories index rose 1.2 points but remained contracting at 48.8. Given still-expanding New Orders and the sharp backlog increase, the data do not point to an involuntary inventory buildup; constrained inventories may instead leave manufacturers positioned to respond to demand.
- Customers’ Inventories at 38.8 remain well below 50 and below the six-month average, indicating “too low” channel inventories. As a contrarian signal, this is supportive of future replenishment demand.
- Supplier Deliveries at 55.1 indicates slower deliveries and a six-month high, consistent with demand strength and/or supply tightness. The concurrent rise in Imports to 54.9 points to increased supply-chain activity rather than broad manufacturing slack.
- Input-cost pressure intensified materially: Prices at 70.5, up 11.5 points and at a six-month high, raises risks to manufacturer margins and goods inflation. Employment improved month over month but remained below 50, marking a slower rate of job contraction rather than net hiring.
Breadth & prices: All 12 listed industries reported growth and none reported contraction. Input prices increased at a faster rate, with the Prices index rising sharply to 70.5.
Takeaway: February’s print confirms a modest manufacturing expansion, with forward-demand and backlog indicators stronger than the headline’s small decline suggests. The key macro offset is the sharp acceleration in input costs, alongside an employment index that remains below 50.