ISM Manufacturing PMI — November 2025
Headline: The Manufacturing PMI fell 0.5 point to 48.2 from 48.7, indicating contraction for the ninth consecutive month, with the rate of contraction faster. The reading was below its trailing six-month average of 48.7 and within the prior range of 48.0–49.1, near the six-month low. Manufacturing remained below its 50.0 breakeven, although the broader economy was still growing; the PMI was above the overall-economy breakeven of 42.3.
Sub-indices:
| Index | Level | Prior | Change | Direction | vs 6-mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 47.4 | 49.4 | -2 | Contracting | below avg (48.5) |
| Production | 51.4 | 48.2 | 3.2 | Growing | above avg (49.0) |
| Employment | 44 | 46 | -2 | Contracting | below avg (45.1) |
| Supplier Deliveries | 49.3 | 54.2 | -4.9 | Faster | below avg (53.0) |
| Inventories | 48.9 | 45.8 | 3.1 | Contracting | above avg (47.9) |
| Customers' Inventories | 44.7 | 43.9 | 0.8 | Too Low | below avg (44.8) |
| Prices | 58.5 | 58 | 0.5 | Increasing | below avg (64.6) |
| Backlog of Orders | 44 | 47.9 | -3.9 | Contracting | 6-mo low |
| New Export Orders | 46.2 | 44.5 | 1.7 | Contracting | above avg (44.6) |
| Imports | 48.9 | 45.4 | 3.5 | Contracting | 6-mo high |
Key moves:
- Production crossed back above 50, rising to 51.4 from 48.2 and reaching the top of its six-month range, despite New Orders remaining in contraction.
- Backlog of Orders fell to a six-month low of 44, while Employment declined to 44, below its six-month average and marking a faster rate of contraction.
- Imports rose to a six-month high of 48.9, and New Export Orders improved to 46.2, though both remained below 50.
Insights:
- The production rebound appears weakly supported by demand: New Orders fell to 47.4, Backlogs reached a six-month low, and Inventories rose to 48.9 while orders declined. The inventory increase therefore looks more like an involuntary buildup than deliberate stocking for stronger demand.
- Customers’ Inventories remained “Too Low” at 44.7, a typically constructive signal for future replenishment, but the benefit is constrained by the deterioration in New Orders and the prolonged backlog contraction.
- Supplier Deliveries shifted from slower to faster performance, falling to 49.3 from 54.2. Below 50, this points more to reduced demand-related pressure and improved delivery speed than to supply-chain tightness.
- Prices rose at a faster rate to 58.5, indicating continued input-cost pressure and potential margin or goods-inflation headwinds, although the reading remained below its six-month average of 64.6.
- Employment contracted at 44, its tenth consecutive month below 50 and below its six-month average, reinforcing that the production improvement has not yet translated into manufacturing labor demand.
Breadth & prices: Four industries reported growth—Computer & Electronic Products, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products, Miscellaneous Manufacturing, and Machinery—and no industries were listed as contracting. Input prices increased at a faster rate, with the Prices Index at 58.5.
Takeaway: November’s print signals a manufacturing cycle still in contraction, characterized by weak forward demand, falling backlogs, and sustained job shedding. The one-month production rebound and low customer inventories offer potential support for future activity, but the six-month pattern does