ISM Manufacturing PMI — January 2026
Headline: The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 from 47.9, a 4.7-point increase, marking a return to expansion after 12 months of contraction. The current trend has run for 1 month. The reading is a 6-month high, well above the prior six-month average of 48.4 and the 47.9–49.1 range. It also indicates a growing broader economy, with the PMI above the overall-economy breakeven of 47.5.
Sub-indices:
| Index | Level | Prior | Change | Direction | vs 6-mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 57.1 | 47.4 | +9.7 | Growing | 6-mo high |
| Production | 55.9 | 50.7 | +5.2 | Growing | 6-mo high |
| Employment | 48.1 | 44.8 | +3.3 | Contracting | 6-mo high |
| Supplier Deliveries | 54.4 | 50.8 | +3.6 | Slowing | 6-mo high |
| Inventories | 47.6 | 45.7 | +1.9 | Contracting | above avg (47.6) |
| Customers' Inventories | 38.7 | 43.3 | -4.6 | Too Low | 6-mo low |
| Prices | 59.0 | 58.5 | +0.5 | Increasing | below avg (60.9) |
| Backlog of Orders | 51.6 | 45.8 | +5.8 | Growing | 6-mo high |
| New Export Orders | 50.2 | 46.8 | +3.4 | Growing | 6-mo high |
| Imports | 50.0 | 44.6 | +5.4 | Unchanged | 6-mo high |
Key moves:
- New Orders and Production reached 6-month highs at 57.1 and 55.9, respectively; both moved from below to above the 50 breakeven.
- Backlog of Orders crossed into expansion at 51.6, also a 6-month high, while New Export Orders reached 50.2 from 46.8.
- Customers’ Inventories fell to a 6-month low of 38.7, signaling an increasingly understocked downstream channel. Employment improved to a 6-month high but remained below 50.
Insights:
- The demand signal strengthened materially: New Orders rose to 57.1, Backlog to 51.6, and Production to 55.9. The combination points to improving near-term production momentum rather than an inventory-led rebound.
- Manufacturers’ own Inventories remained in contraction at 47.6, even as orders and backlogs surged. This is consistent with lean stocks against stronger demand, rather than an involuntary buildup.
- Customers’ Inventories at 38.7 are “too low” and at a 6-month low, a bullish forward signal under ISM methodology: customers may need to replenish, supporting future orders and production.
- Supplier Deliveries rose to 54.4, a 6-month high in the slowing-deliveries direction. Alongside reported shortages in electronic and electrical components, this suggests stronger demand and some supply-chain tightness.
- Employment remains a constraint: the index improved by 3.3 points but stayed below 50 at 48.1, indicating continued net manufacturing job shedding. Prices at 59.0 indicate ongoing input-cost increases, although the level remains below the six-month average of 60.9.
Breadth & prices: Nine industries reported growth and none reported contraction. Input prices continued to increase, with the Prices index at 59.0, up 0.5 point month over month.
Takeaway: January’s print signals a meaningful, broad-based turn in the manufacturing cycle, led by orders, production, and backlogs at six-month highs. The outlook is constructive for goods activity