ISM Manufacturing PMI — June 2026
Headline: The Manufacturing PMI fell 0.7 point to 53.3, indicating continued expansion at a slower rate for the sixth consecutive month. The reading was above its trailing six-month average of 52.1 and within the prior six-month range of 47.9–54.0. At 53.3, manufacturing remained above its 50.0 breakeven level and the 47.5 threshold associated with broader-economy growth.
Sub-indices:
| Index | Level | Prior | Change | Direction | vs 6-mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 56.0 | 56.8 | -0.8 | Growing | above avg (54.2) |
| Production | 52.2 | 54.3 | -2.1 | Growing | below avg (53.9) |
| Employment | 49.7 | 48.6 | +1.1 | Contracting | 6-mo high |
| Supplier Deliveries | 57.4 | 60.6 | -3.2 | Slowing | above avg (56.7) |
| Inventories | 51.4 | 49.9 | +1.5 | Growing | 6-mo high |
| Customers' Inventories | 42.3 | 42.7 | -0.4 | Too Low | above avg (40.4) |
| Prices | 73.0 | 82.1 | -9.1 | Increasing | above avg (72.2) |
| Backlog of Orders | 50.5 | 52.2 | -1.7 | Growing | below avg (52.0) |
| New Export Orders | 48.5 | 50.6 | -2.1 | Contracting | below avg (49.3) |
| Imports | 52.9 | 53.0 | -0.1 | Growing | above avg (50.9) |
Key moves:
- Inventories rose into expansion at 51.4, a six-month high, from 49.9 in May.
- Employment improved to a six-month high of 49.7 but remained below 50, so manufacturing payrolls were still contracting.
- New Export Orders fell below 50 to 48.5, crossing from growth into contraction; Production also weakened to 52.2, below its six-month average.
Insights:
- The inventory build is not purely a weak-demand signal: New Orders remain solid at 56.0, well above their six-month average, while Customers’ Inventories remain too low at 42.3, a constructive setup for replenishment demand. However, the 50.5 Backlog reading and its decline below the six-month average argue against an unequivocally strong forward-production signal.
- Employment shows a clear level/change divergence: the index improved 1.1 points and reached a six-month high, but at 49.7 it still indicates net manufacturing job shedding.
- Supplier Deliveries at 57.4 still signal slower deliveries, consistent with ongoing demand or supply-chain tightness, although the sharp decline from 60.6 suggests that this pressure eased materially in June.
- Input-cost pressure remains elevated: Prices registered 73.0, above the six-month average of 72.2, implying continued margin and goods-inflation risk despite the 9.1-point monthly moderation.
- External demand weakened as New Export Orders contracted, while Imports remained expansionary at 52.9. The combination points to softer global demand even as domestic order flow remains supportive.
Breadth & prices: Growth was reported across 14 industries, with no industries contracting. Input prices continued to increase, with the Prices Index at 73.0, albeit at a slower rate than in May.
Takeaway: June confirms an ongoing but moderating manufacturing expansion: domestic orders and low customer inventories support the cycle, while softer production, backlogs and exports point to slower momentum ahead. Elevated input costs remain the principal macro and margin risk, even with some month-to-month relief.