ISM Manufacturing PMI — June 2026
Headline: The Manufacturing PMI fell 0.7 point to 53.3 in June, signaling continued expansion at a slower rate for the sixth consecutive month. The reading was above the prior six-month average of 52.1 and within the 47.9–54.0 range. Manufacturing remained above its 50.0 breakeven, while the broader economy also registered growth relative to its 47.5 breakeven.
Sub-indices:
| Index | Level | Prior | Change | Direction | vs 6-mo. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 56.0 | 56.8 | -0.8 | Growing | above avg (54.2) |
| Production | 52.2 | 54.3 | -2.1 | Growing | below avg (53.9) |
| Employment | 49.7 | 48.6 | +1.1 | Contracting | 6-mo high |
| Supplier Deliveries | 57.4 | 60.6 | -3.2 | Slowing | above avg (56.7) |
| Inventories | 51.4 | 49.9 | +1.5 | Growing | 6-mo high |
| Customers' Inventories | 42.3 | 42.7 | -0.4 | Too Low | above avg (40.4) |
| Prices | 73.0 | 82.1 | -9.1 | Increasing | above avg (72.2) |
| Backlog of Orders | 50.5 | 52.2 | -1.7 | Growing | below avg (52.0) |
| New Export Orders | 48.5 | 50.6 | -2.1 | Contracting | below avg (49.3) |
| Imports | 52.9 | 53.0 | -0.1 | Growing | above avg (50.9) |
Key moves:
- Employment improved 1.1 points to 49.7, a six-month high, but remained below 50 and therefore still indicated net manufacturing job contraction.
- Inventories rose 1.5 points to 51.4, crossing above 50 and reaching a six-month high.
- New Export Orders fell 2.1 points to 48.5, crossing from growth into contraction; Production also weakened to 52.2, below its six-month average.
Insights:
- Demand remained the principal support: New Orders at 56.0 were well above 50 and above their six-month average. The inventory increase therefore appears at least partly deliberate, although the easing Backlog index at 50.5 signals limited additional production visibility.
- Customers’ Inventories remained “too low” at 42.3, a bullish forward signal for replenishment demand. The reading was above its six-month average but still materially below 50, indicating the channel was not overstocked.
- Supplier Deliveries at 57.4 still indicated slower deliveries, consistent with ongoing demand or supply-chain tightness, though the sharp decline from 60.6 points to lessening pressure at the margin.
- Employment improved but remained contractionary—a clear change-versus-direction divergence. Labor demand is recovering from a prolonged period of shedding, but has not yet returned to net hiring.
- Prices fell sharply to 73.0 from 82.1, reducing the pace of input-cost escalation, but remained above 50 and slightly above the six-month average, leaving continued margin and goods-inflation pressure.
Breadth & prices: All 14 reported industries expanded, while none contracted. Input prices continued to increase, with the Prices index at 73.0, albeit at a slower rate.
Takeaway: June’s print describes a manufacturing expansion that remains broad and demand-supported, but is losing momentum through softer Production, Backlogs and exports. The six-month trend is still constructive for the cycle, while elevated input costs and sub-50 employment argue against an unambiguously strong macro signal.