ISM Manufacturing PMI — March 2026
Headline: The Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 from 52.4, signaling expansion at a faster rate for the third consecutive month. The reading was a six-month high, above the prior six-month range of 47.9–52.6 and the 49.8 six-month average. The broader economy was also growing: the PMI remained above the 47.5 economy-wide breakeven, while manufacturing was above its 50.0 breakeven.
Sub-indices:
| Index | Level | Prior | Change | Direction | vs 6-mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 53.5 | 55.8 | -2.3 | Growing | above avg (51.1) |
| Production | 55.1 | 53.5 | +1.6 | Growing | above avg (51.8) |
| Employment | 48.7 | 48.8 | -0.1 | Contracting | above avg (46.2) |
| Supplier Deliveries | 58.9 | 55.1 | +3.8 | Slowing | 6-mo high |
| Inventories | 47.1 | 48.8 | -1.7 | Contracting | below avg (47.3) |
| Customers' Inventories | 40.1 | 38.8 | +1.3 | Too Low | below avg (42.2) |
| Prices | 78.3 | 70.5 | +7.8 | Increasing | 6-mo high |
| Backlog of Orders | 54.4 | 56.6 | -2.2 | Growing | above avg (48.7) |
| New Export Orders | 49.9 | 50.3 | -0.4 | Contracting | above avg (46.8) |
| Imports | 52.6 | 54.9 | -2.3 | Growing | above avg (48.1) |
Key moves:
- The headline PMI, Supplier Deliveries and Prices all reached six-month highs; Prices rose 7.8 points to 78.3.
- New Export Orders slipped to 49.9 from 50.3, crossing below the 50 breakeven into contraction, despite remaining above its six-month average.
- Production strengthened to 55.1, while New Orders eased to 53.5; both remained above their six-month averages, but orders lost momentum.
Insights:
- The production pipeline remains constructive but is cooling at the margin. New Orders remain expansionary at 53.5, Backlog of Orders at 54.4, and Inventories contracted to 47.1. The combination of orders above inventories suggests no evidence of an involuntary inventory buildup and supports continued production, although slower order growth bears watching.
- Customers’ Inventories remained deeply “Too Low” at 40.1, a bullish leading signal for replenishment demand. The reading is below its 42.2 six-month average, indicating limited channel stock and potential support for future orders.
- Supplier Deliveries rose to 58.9, a six-month high. Under ISM convention, this indicates slower deliveries and is consistent with stronger demand and/or supply-chain tightness rather than weak activity.
- Labor remains the weak link: Employment was 48.7, contracting for the 30th month and edging lower from 48.8. Manufacturing output is expanding without a corresponding recovery in net hiring.
- Cost pressure intensified sharply. Prices reached 78.3, well above the 61.1 six-month average, raising risks to manufacturer margins and goods-inflation persistence.
Breadth & prices: All 13 listed industries reported growth, while none reported contraction. Input prices were increasing at a faster rate, with the Prices index at 78.3, its highest level in six months.
Takeaway: March confirms a broad-based manufacturing expansion and a six-month high in the headline index, led by production, low customer inventories and elevated backlogs. However, easing new orders, contracting employment and a sharp acceleration in input prices point to a cycle that is expanding with rising cost and labor constraints.