ISM Manufacturing PMI — April 2026
Headline: The ISM Manufacturing PMI was 52.7 in April, unchanged from March, indicating manufacturing expanded for a fourth consecutive month. The reading matches the top of its prior six-month range (47.9–52.7) and is above the six-month average of 50.4. It also remains above the manufacturing breakeven of 50.0 and the broader-economy breakeven of 47.5, consistent with growth in both manufacturing and the overall economy.
Sub-indices:
| Index | Level | Prior | Change | Direction | vs 6-mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 54.1 | 53.5 | +0.6 | Growing | above avg (51.8) |
| Production | 53.4 | 55.1 | -1.7 | Growing | above avg (52.5) |
| Employment | 46.4 | 48.7 | -2.3 | Contracting | below avg (46.8) |
| Supplier Deliveries | 60.6 | 58.9 | +1.7 | Slowing | 6-mo high |
| Inventories | 49.0 | 47.1 | +1.9 | Contracting | 6-mo high |
| Customers' Inventories | 39.1 | 40.1 | -1.0 | Too Low | below avg (41.6) |
| Prices | 84.6 | 78.3 | +6.3 | Increasing | 6-mo high |
| Backlog of Orders | 51.4 | 54.4 | -3.0 | Growing | above avg (50.0) |
| New Export Orders | 47.9 | 49.9 | -2.0 | Contracting | below avg (48.0) |
| Imports | 50.3 | 52.6 | -2.3 | Growing | above avg (49.4) |
Key moves:
- Supplier Deliveries rose to 60.6, a six-month high, signaling materially slower deliveries versus the prior six-month window.
- Prices climbed 6.3 points to 84.6, also a six-month high and the sharpest cost-pressure reading in the period.
- New Export Orders fell from 49.9 to 47.9, crossing below the 50 threshold into contraction; Inventories rose to a six-month high but remained below 50.
Insights:
- The demand mix remains constructive: New Orders at 54.1 accelerated and Backlog at 51.4 continued to grow, while customers’ inventories stayed “too low” at 39.1. The latter is bullish for replenishment demand and future production.
- The rise in manufacturers’ inventories to 49.0 appears more consistent with positioning for ongoing orders than an outright demand-driven buildup, given rising New Orders, positive Backlog, and low customer inventories. However, Production slowed to 53.4, tempering the near-term output signal.
- Supplier Deliveries at 60.6 indicates substantially slower deliveries, consistent with demand or supply-chain tightness rather than slack. This reinforces the expansion signal but raises execution and input-cost risks.
- Labor remains the clearest soft spot: Employment fell to 46.4, contracting faster and below its six-month average despite the headline PMI remaining in expansion. This is a notable divergence between output growth and factory hiring.
- The combination of Prices at 84.6, widespread commodity increases, and reported shortages in electronic and electrical components points to intensifying input-cost and margin pressure, with potential goods-inflation implications.
Breadth & prices: All 13 listed industries reported growth, while none reported contraction. Input prices were sharply higher, with the Prices index increasing to 84.6.
Takeaway: April’s print confirms a broad-based but uneven manufacturing expansion: orders, backlogs, low customer inventories, and constrained deliveries support the cycle, while weaker employment, slowing production, softer exports, and record-high price pressure are important offsets. The six-month improvement in the headline PMI is therefore accompanied by rising inflation and supply-side risks rather than a clean acceleration in real activity.