Stocks Overcome Yesterday's Selling Pressure, Recovery Rally Continues: Nov. 11, 2026 — 2026-11-11
What moved & why: CoreWeave's upbeat earnings and AI sector optimism reversed yesterday's Fed-and-CPI-driven selloff, with semiconductors and Mag7 leading a broad recovery. The Nasdaq-100 broke above its 200-day moving average, though cyclical weakness persisted as the dollar strengthened and Treasury futures implied modest losses.
Cross-asset:
- Equities: Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 rallied; 7 of 11 principal sectors participated in gains. Dow Jones Industrial up only 0.1%, capped by rate sensitivity. Semiconductors and Mag7 led the charge.
- Rates/Treasuries: Bond market closed (Veterans Day). Treasury futures imply modest losses; tighter financial conditions capping rate-sensitive areas.
- Dollar: Strengthened materially, weighing on cyclical trade.
- Oil/Commodities: Slight increase in oil prices; Tehran's rejection of nuclear deal dented hopes for US-Iran accord. Trump's lack of appetite for Middle East military action cited as primary driver of recent fuel price declines. Commodities broadly higher.
- Crypto: Broadly higher; volatility premiums sank sharply on risk-on sentiment.
Econ / Fed angle: Fed Governor Waller opened door to 50-bp hike next month; hotter-than-expected CPI triggered yesterday's selloff. Author suggests Fed may now have option of "one-and-done" rate hike given tumbled oil prices, potentially supporting recovery. Mexico's industrial production fell 1.4% m/m (vs. 0.3% expected); South Korea's unemployment fell to 2.5% but driven by labor force exit; Australia mortgage commitments plunged 15% q/q.
Watch next: Seven weeks remain in 2026. Earnings and economic data signal buoyant momentum. Seasonal calendar effects, potential Fed rate decision, short-covering dynamics, and portfolio manager under-positioning flagged as near-term catalysts for fresh record highs "just in time for Christmas."