Daily Forex Pulse — November 5, 2026

FX OVERVIEW

FX was driven by sharp divergence in central-bank paths, with the BoJ turning more hawkish while the RBA and RBNZ offered little support to their currencies. Risk aversion from the tech selloff and strong US labor data supported the dollar at points, but fiscal uncertainty and lower yields also weighed on it, leaving USD direction mixed; the yen was the clearest beneficiary of policy repricing.

MAJOR PAIRS

AUDUSD — AUD/USD broke below 0.7000 and fell to 0.6931 as the tech-led risk-off move, strong US labor data and hawkish Fed commentary pressured the pair. The RBA’s dovish stance and Australia’s swing to a A$2.826bn trade deficit add to the downside; 0.6893 is the next cited support, while 0.7024 and 0.7058 are resistance.

EURUSD — Eurozone inflation at 4.0% and hawkish ECB rhetoric lifted December hike pricing and helped EUR/USD test 1.1270, but the pair struggled to clear 1.1280 as strong US labor data and hawkish Fed officials revived dollar demand. The near-term bias is range-bound to modestly bullish while above 1.1180, but a sustained break above resistance is needed to confirm further upside.

EURJPY — The pair traded around 177.90 under pressure as BoJ minutes signaled broad support for further rate hikes with inflation nearing 2%. EUR/JPY remains below its 100-day SMA; a break below 175.70 could expose 175.30, while 178.45 is resistance.

GBPUSD — Sterling held near 1.3490 as a softer dollar supported the pair, with a 25bp BoE hike to 4% fully priced. 1.3503 is near-term resistance; the rally remains vulnerable if BoE guidance disappoints, while a break below 1.3454 would weaken the bullish setup.

NZDUSD — NZD/USD rebounded toward 0.5660, but the move reflected dollar weakness rather than stronger New Zealand fundamentals: the RBNZ held at 2.75%, disappointing markets that had expected a hike. The pair faces resistance at 0.5649–0.5664; failure there leaves the broader bearish structure intact, with 0.5580 a key downside threshold.

USDJPY — USD/JPY fell 0.3% to around 157.90 as the yen gained on hawkish BoJ minutes and the dollar faced fiscal-policy uncertainty. The pair is testing its 20-day EMA near 157.90; a break below would strengthen the downside case, with US payrolls a key near-term catalyst.

USDCNY — The PBOC set the daily midpoint at 6.7156, stronger than the prior 6.7180 fix but weaker than the 6.6783 market consensus. The fix suggests managed currency stability rather than a forceful yuan-support signal; near-term direction remains controlled by the PBOC and external demand.

USDSGD — The pair closed near 1.2795 with a modest downside bias after broad dollar softness. 1.2775 is the pivotal floor: a sustained break could open a move toward 1.2755, while resistance is around 1.2800.

CENTRAL BANK WATCH

  • BoJ: Meeting minutes showed broad support for further rate hikes as inflation approaches 2%; one policymaker raised the possibility of accelerating the pace. This is the clearest hawkish signal of the day and supports yen strength.
  • RBA: The bank has paused tightening, removed forward guidance and adopted a wait-and-see stance, with the supplied summary indicating no hike before June 2027. That reinforces the negative AUD rate outlook.
  • RBNZ: Held the OCR at 2.75%, below market expectations for a hike, weighing on NZD.
  • ECB: October inflation reached 4.0%, while Joachim Nagel’s hawkish remarks helped lift market pricing for a December hike to about 72%.
  • BoE: A 25bp hike to 4% is fully priced; forward guidance and Governor Bailey’s tone are the key uncertainties for sterling.
  • Fed: Beth Hammack and Thomas Barkin stressed inflation risks, while strong labor data supported a restrictive-policy outlook. The next US payrolls report is a key test of rate expectations.

MACRO DRIVERS

  • Risk aversion: A 5.5% Nasdaq 100 decline tied to AI regulation concerns and weaker data-center demand triggered defensive flows and pressured risk-sensitive currencies.
  • Rate divergence: The hawkish BoJ contrasted with the dovish RBA and RBNZ, strengthening the yen and weakening the Antipodean currencies.
  • Mixed dollar impulse: Jobless claims fell to 189K and Fed officials remained hawkish, but post-election fiscal-gridlock concerns and lower yields periodically weighed on the dollar.
  • Geopolitical risk: US-China tensions over semiconductor and AI restrictions, Taiwan and export controls raise supply-chain risk, though the summaries provide no clear direct FX repricing signal today.

POSITIONING IDEAS

  • Bullish

    • GBPUSD — A softer dollar and a fully priced BoE hike support the long bias; the trade depends on the BoE not undercutting expectations with dovish guidance.

  • Bearish

    • AUDUSD — The RBA’s dovish stance, widening trade deficit and risk-off pressure point lower; 0.6893 is the next cited support.
    • EURJPY — BoJ hawkishness and the prospect of further tightening favor yen strength; a break below 175.70 would reinforce the downside.
    • NZDUSD — The RBNZ’s hold disappointed hike expectations, leaving the rebound vulnerable if resistance at 0.5649–0.5664 holds.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.