Daily Forex Pulse — October 30, 2026

FX OVERVIEW

The dollar is broadly supported by strong US growth and sticky inflation, while Middle East tensions are lifting energy prices and sustaining risk aversion. That backdrop is being challenged by a hawkish shift at the BoJ and expected tightening from the BoE; oil strength is also supporting the Canadian dollar.

MAJOR PAIRS

AUDUSD — The pair remains under pressure near 0.7025 as dollar strength outweighs Australia’s 0.8% monthly CPI rise and solid Q3 growth. Support at the 20-period EMA near 0.7013 is thin; resistance sits at 0.7068 and 0.7119, leaving the near-term bias lower.

EURUSD — The euro failed to hold its rebound after stronger eurozone GDP, and slipped back toward 1.1140 as robust US GDP and core PCE reinforced dollar support. ECB tightening expectations offer some support, but French fiscal concerns and uncertainty over Lagarde’s departure weigh on confidence; 1.12 is resistance, with 1.1135 and 1.1100 key supports.

GBPUSD — Resilient UK data, wage growth near 3.5% and expectations of BoE tightening support sterling, while short positioning leaves scope for a squeeze. The pair is holding above 1.3380; a break through 1.3419 would open 1.3467 and potentially 1.35, while a dovish BoE signal would threaten the bullish setup.

NZDUSD — The rebound toward 0.5640 remains corrective as the pair trades below its 20-day EMA at 0.5658 and the dollar stays firm. The bias remains lower, with 0.5584 the next support; RBNZ expectations of possible future hikes have not yet reversed the downtrend.

USDCAD — The pair has fallen to six-week lows near 1.3968 as crude above $112 supports the oil-linked loonie and risk aversion has not restored the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. A break below 1.3968 would expose 1.3900 and 1.3875; 1.4000 and 1.4070–1.4080 are resistance.

USDJPY — The yen has strengthened on the BoJ’s hawkish shift, with underlying inflation at target and markets assigning a high probability to a year-end hike. The pair is trading around the 156–159 range; a sustained move below 156 would signal scope for a deeper decline.

USDCNY — The PBOC lowered its central rate slightly to 6.7138 from 6.7147, indicating a measured effort to maintain yuan stability amid external uncertainty. The fix provides a modest stabilizing signal, but no decisive directional break is indicated.

USDSGD — The pair remains range-bound as softer US yields compete with resilient US data, while high energy costs lift Singapore’s import inflation and constrain further SGD appreciation. Support is at 1.2760–1.2740 and resistance at 1.2820–1.2850.

CENTRAL BANK WATCH

• BoJ: Held its policy rate at 1.25%, but confirmed underlying inflation has reached 2% and raised its FY2027 inflation forecast to 2.6%–2.7%. A dissenting member favored an immediate hike, while markets price a roughly 70%–80% chance of a December move. The shift in tone supports the yen.
• ECB: Held the deposit rate at 2.50%, but signaled readiness to tighten further and acknowledged that a hike was discussed. Markets price a meaningful chance of a December increase; Lagarde’s announced early departure adds leadership uncertainty to an already divided outlook.
• BoE: Markets expect a possible rate hike next week, supported by resilient UK data and wage growth. The decision and guidance are the key near-term sterling catalysts.
• RBNZ: Held the OCR at 2.75%. The decision was not framed as a dovish pivot, but markets remain unconvinced that further tightening is imminent.
• Fed: Strong US GDP and core PCE have reinforced expectations of further tightening, with markets pricing roughly a 75% chance of a December hike.
• PBOC / MAS: The PBOC’s fix signaled measured yuan management. MAS continues to guide gradual SGD appreciation, though the S$NEER’s position in the upper half of the band limits room for further gains.

MACRO DRIVERS

• US data and rate expectations favor the dollar: Q3 GDP grew 3.4% and core PCE rose 3.1% year on year, keeping Fed tightening expectations alive.
• Geopolitical risk is feeding through energy markets: Middle East tensions have lifted oil above $112 and pushed European and British gas prices higher, amplifying inflation risks and supporting energy exporters.
• Policy divergence is creating selective exceptions to broad dollar strength: The BoJ’s hawkish shift supports the yen, while expected BoE tightening and oil-driven CAD strength provide support to sterling and the Canadian dollar.
• China’s weak consumption remains a regional headwind: Deteriorating consumer demand reinforces concerns about growth and exposure to Chinese activity, while the PBOC’s managed fix signals a preference for currency stability.

POSITIONING IDEAS

• Bullish

  • GBPUSD — Resilient UK data, sticky wage growth and expectations of BoE tightening support sterling; a break above 1.3419 would strengthen the setup.
  • CADJPY — Higher oil prices support CAD, while the BoJ’s hawkish shift supports JPY; favor the cross selectively, with volatility risk elevated.

• Bearish

  • AUDUSD — Strong US data and dollar demand outweigh firm Australian inflation and growth; 0.7013 is the immediate support to watch.
  • NZDUSD — The pair remains below its 20-day EMA and the RBNZ hold has not catalyzed a sustained recovery.
  • USDCAD — Oil strength and CAD outperformance favor further downside below 1.3968, with 1.3875 the next major level.
  • USDJPY — The BoJ’s shift toward normalization and rising hike expectations favor yen strength, particularly on a break below 156.