COMMODITY OVERVIEW
Geopolitical supply risk is driving energy higher, with Middle East shipping and infrastructure threats lifting crude and European gas prices. The move is not broad-based: gold and silver are falling as higher-rate expectations and a stronger dollar outweigh safe-haven demand, while industrial metals face macro pressure despite signs of tight copper supply in China.
ENERGY
Crude oil is trading at multi-month highs, with WTI at $104.12/bbl and Brent at $117.64/bbl, as tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and reported Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure raise the risk premium. Higher shipping and insurance costs add to the threat of disruption; prices are pricing in potential supply losses rather than confirmed shortfalls. No fresh OPEC+ production decision is reported.
Natural gas is split by region. European and British gas prices have surged on U.S.–Iran tensions and Hormuz risk, with low European inventories and elevated Asian LNG premiums amplifying concerns over supply routes. By contrast, U.S. gas futures declined on mild weather forecasts. Separately, Hess Midstream reported weaker gas gathering and processing volumes, a company-level signal of softer feedstock throughput rather than a broad market balance indicator.
METALS
Industrial Metals
Copper futures have eased toward $6.50/lb amid broader market weakness and rate concerns. The downside is tempered by reports of tightening physical supply in China and rising import premiums, leaving near-term price action weaker than the underlying physical signals.
In aluminum, Constellium reported strong earnings and cash flow as its recycling operations scale, reinforcing the case for lower-cost, recycled production; this is a structural company and capacity signal, not a clear near-term price catalyst. Angang Steel’s widening losses add to concerns about weak Chinese steel-sector profitability, though the company’s results alone do not establish a broader demand trend.
Uranium rose to six-month highs near $90/lb, supported by reported supply disruption at Kazatomprom and renewed nuclear demand. It remains a distinct strength against weakness in more cyclical metals.
Precious Metals
Gold fell 3.3% to $3,885.70/oz, its lowest level since October 2025, while silver dropped below $50/oz and reached an 11-month low. Higher-for-longer rate expectations and dollar strength are overpowering geopolitical haven demand; the reported flight to cash and forced selling have added pressure.
AGRICULTURE
No material grain-market catalyst is reported: the summaries provide no fresh crop, export, or weather signal for corn, wheat, or soybeans. In specialty crops, avocado supply is running ahead of demand, weighing on per-unit prices and margins despite higher U.S. consumption.
MACRO DRIVERS
- Geopolitical risk: Hormuz and Saudi infrastructure threats are lifting the crude and European gas risk premium.
- Rates and dollar: Inflation concerns have raised expectations of tighter Fed policy, pressuring non-yielding gold and silver.
- China: Weak consumer spending and poor steel-company results weigh on the demand narrative, while reported tightness in Chinese copper supply offers a counterpoint.
- Weather: Mild U.S. forecasts are weighing on domestic natural gas, in contrast with geopolitically driven strength in Europe.
POSITIONING IDEAS
- Bullish: Crude oil — maintain a tactical long bias while threats to Hormuz shipping and Saudi infrastructure sustain the supply-risk premium. The position is vulnerable to de-escalation or confirmation that flows remain intact.
- Bullish: Uranium — supply disruption and nuclear-sector demand support the rally, although the move is exposed to reversal if Kazatomprom supply concerns ease.
- Bearish: Gold and silver — higher-rate expectations, a firmer dollar, and flight-to-cash selling are weighing on both metals despite geopolitical tensions.
- Bearish: U.S. natural gas — mild weather forecasts are a near-term headwind; this view is regional and does not extend to European gas, where geopolitical supply risk is dominant.