And… They're Off — 2026-10-13
Core thesis: Earnings season day one shows that guidance is the decisive factor in post-earnings moves—beating EPS and revenue alone is necessary but insufficient; missing guidance expectations triggers sharp selloffs regardless of headline beat.
Key points:
- Financial sector muddle: JPM, GS, C, WFC all meandered near yesterday's close despite mixed results (JPM/GS strong in equities, weak in fixed income; C/WFC inverse). Sector-specific factors are non-translatable; little signal for broader market.
- UNH: guidance works: Beat EPS ($4.69 vs $4.12 exp) and revenue ($112.69B vs $111.03B exp), and raised full-year EPS guidance to $20.50+ (vs prior $19.50–$20). Rose 5% premarket but drifted back to flat by noon—even solid guidance no guarantee of sustained rally.
- JNJ: guidance miss punished: Beat EPS ($2.59 vs $2.52 exp) but offered full-year guidance of $11.05–$11.15, matching (not exceeding) consensus $11.08. Medical tech disappointed. Stock down ~7%.
- DPZ: same trap: Beat EPS but tepid growth and discounts triggered analyst estimate cuts. Down as much as 12%, stabilized ~4% lower.
Takeaway: Traders should treat guidance as the sufficient condition for post-earnings rallies; beat earnings without raising guidance at your peril. Watch forward guidance cuts closely in consumer and healthcare names.