Daily Commodity Pulse — September 28, 2026

COMMODITY OVERVIEW

Geopolitics and monetary tightening dominated commodity markets, producing sharp divergence across sectors. Middle East tensions lifted Brent above $106 and WTI toward $95, while surging U.S. yields and a stronger dollar pressured gold and silver. Copper was the exception, rallying on strong Chinese demand and critically low exchange inventories.

ENERGY

  • Crude oil: The U.S. rejection of Iran’s ceasefire proposal and Iran’s refusal to compromise over the Strait of Hormuz added a significant geopolitical risk premium. Brent moved above $106 per barrel and WTI reached approximately $94.57 as markets priced the possibility of disruption through a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows.
  • Supply risk remains elevated but not one-directional. Continued Houthi attacks are disrupting Red Sea shipping, while European and U.S. diesel prices reached record highs. However, Saudi Arabia’s resumption of exports through the East-West pipeline reduces its dependence on Hormuz and could cap the risk premium if flows remain reliable.
  • The result is a high-volatility, headline-driven oil market rather than a clean fundamental bull trend. Any evidence of de-escalation could produce a sharp reversal; renewed restrictions around Hormuz would create substantial upside convexity.
  • Natural gas: European and U.K. gas prices rebounded more than 2.7% as the Middle East crisis raised LNG and shipping concerns. Longer term, rising U.S. LNG exports and new regional infrastructure continue to support demand for natural gas, although no meaningful U.S. storage signal was provided today.

METALS

Industrial Metals

  • Copper outperformed, rallying approximately 6% on strong Chinese demand and critically low exchange inventories. Tight visible supply combined with infrastructure, grid, EV, and renewable demand is reinforcing the structural copper bull case.
  • Mining developments added to the longer-term supply narrative. Eldorado Gold’s grid connection at Skouries supports potential production of roughly 67 million pounds of annual copper by 2026, while high-grade drilling at Osisko Metals’ Québec project included a 28.5-meter interval grading 2.31% copper.
  • Nickel remains under pressure from persistent supply-glut concerns and slower EV-related demand expectations. Mitsubishi’s decision to exit its 15% stake in Giga Metals’ Turnagain project reinforces the market’s preference for copper exposure over standalone nickel assets.
  • Indonesia’s planned 20 MWp solar-plus-storage project for nickel processing is strategically important but longer dated. If commissioned in 2027, it could improve the competitiveness of lower-carbon nickel supply and pressure coal-dependent producers.
  • Steel fundamentals remain constructive. U.S. hot-rolled coil prices have exceeded $1,300 per short ton amid tariffs, plant outages, and supply constraints. Nucor’s planned 3 million-ton-per-year West Virginia sheet mill and strong guidance support a bullish view on U.S. flat-rolled steel, although the rally leaves the sector exposed to demand or margin normalization.

Precious Metals

  • Gold fell to roughly $4,143 and broke below the $4,230 technical support level. Rising U.S. real yields, a stronger dollar, and Treasury yields near 5.27% are overwhelming traditional safe-haven demand as investors favor cash and higher-yielding assets.
  • ETF flows provide a conflicting signal. GLD.US continues to attract inflows despite the price breakdown, suggesting institutions still value gold as a systemic hedge against fiscal stress, sovereign debt, and refinancing risk. That support is strategic rather than immediately price-positive while real rates remain elevated.
  • Silver declined approximately 5%, with SLV.US pressured by the dollar, higher real yields, technical deterioration, and profit-taking by Chinese investors. Near-term momentum remains bearish despite longer-term industrial demand from renewables, EVs, and defense.

AGRICULTURE

  • Soybean demand remains structurally firm. ADM reported a 129% year-over-year increase in oilseeds-processing profit, driven by strong demand for soybean meal and vegetable oils from the pork and poultry sectors. Tightly booked North American crushing capacity and Chinese export demand support processing margins.
  • The U.S.-China trade agreement remains incomplete. China committed to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, but the continued 10% tariff leaves U.S. exporters exposed to policy risk and gives Beijing continued leverage.
  • The proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger is a significant negative for agricultural shippers. Farmers and the NFU warn that further rail consolidation could raise freight costs, reduce network resilience, and weaken farm-gate margins.
  • Cocoa, coffee, and soybean oil declined, indicating easing supply concerns and improved global flows. No major weather shock or crop-report surprise was provided.
  • In longer-term agriculture, FMC’s proposed Brazilian herbicide rimisoxafen could help address resistant weeds in corn and soybean production, but regulatory approval remains the key risk.

MACRO DRIVERS

  • Dollar and real yields: A stronger U.S. dollar and Treasury yields near 5.27% are tightening financial conditions and pressuring non-yielding gold and silver.
  • Middle East risk: The Iran-U.S. breakdown and threats to the Strait of Hormuz are sustaining a large risk premium in oil, refined products, LNG, and freight.
  • China demand: Strong Chinese demand and low inventories are supporting copper, while the unresolved tariff on U.S. soybeans limits the agricultural benefit from the latest trade breakthrough.
  • Inflation risk: Higher energy and diesel prices could delay monetary easing and reinforce the bearish real-rate impulse for precious metals.

POSITIONING IDEAS

  • Bullish:

    • Copper — strong Chinese demand, critically low exchange inventories, and long-cycle grid and energy-transition demand support upside continuation.
    • U.S. flat-rolled steel — tariffs, outages, constrained supply, and infrastructure and defense demand are supporting hot-rolled coil pricing and producer margins.
    • WTI/Brent — maintain upside exposure selectively through options or defined-risk structures while Hormuz and Red Sea disruption risks remain unresolved.

  • Bearish:

    • Silver/SLV.US — the 5% decline, technical breakdown, stronger dollar, and elevated real yields favor continued near-term downside.
    • Nickel — Mitsubishi’s exit and persistent supply-glut concerns reinforce bearish sentiment toward nickel-centric projects and pricing.
    • Front-end crude oil risk premium — Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline restoration and any diplomatic de-escalation could trigger a sharp reversal in geopolitical premium and pressure USO.US.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.