Haru Insights — September 26, 2026

Macro Conditions

Overall Economic Environment: The economy appears resilient but increasingly restrictive and bifurcated. Activity remains firm, with U.S. Composite PMI at 58.4, but high long-term yields, energy disruption, tighter credit and affordability pressure are creating a more selective market. Investors are favoring cash generation, pricing power and contracted demand over duration or leverage.

Key Macro Factors:

  • 1. Higher-for-longer interest rates

    • Current state: The 10-year Treasury yield exceeded 5.1% and the 30-year yield exceeded 5.5%; Treasury volatility remained elevated, with MOVE above 100. The ECB may raise its deposit rate to 2.75% in December.
    • Market implications: Higher discount rates pressure long-duration technology, renewable energy, housing, real estate and long-maturity bonds such as TLT. Insurers and selected banks may benefit from higher reinvestment yields.
    • Risk to monitor: A weaker labor-market or inflation report could trigger a sharp reversal in yields and duration positioning.

  • 2. Energy inflation and geopolitical supply disruption

    • Current state: European gas prices rose approximately 70% since July, while Persian Gulf LNG exports fell to roughly 15%–25% of normal levels. Tanker rates exceeded $1 million per day during shipping disruptions.
    • Market implications: Energy infrastructure, LNG, nuclear and selected refiners may benefit, while airlines, trucking, manufacturers and consumers face higher delivered costs.
    • Risk to monitor: A diplomatic improvement could rapidly reduce gas and freight premia; further disruption or colder weather would create additional upside pressure.

  • 3. Credit and project-finance tightening

    • Current state: Weak Treasury auction demand, widening AI-related credit spreads and rising hyperscaler debt issuance indicate that investors are scrutinizing leverage and cash conversion more closely.
    • Market implications: Cash-generative infrastructure providers are preferable to heavily leveraged data-center developers. Oracle’s force majeure notice shows that AI demand does not guarantee timely project completion.
    • Risk to monitor: Delayed power access, refinancing pressure or slower AI utilization could expose balance-sheet weaknesses.

  • 4. Resilient growth with uneven consumer demand

    • Current state: PMI remains strong, while euro-area growth is forecast at 1.0% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. At the same time, consumer sentiment fell to 47.8, and affordability concerns are increasing.
    • Market implications: Value retailers, staples and essential services are better positioned than premium apparel, restaurants, housing and discretionary brands. Earnings quality matters more than headline revenue growth.
    • Risk to monitor: Higher energy and financing costs could eventually weaken business investment and consumer spending.

  • 5. Fiscal and sovereign-risk pressure

    • Current state: Expanding government debt issuance is lifting term premiums, while the French-German 10-year spread reached approximately 111 basis points.
    • Market implications: Sovereign spreads and bond volatility may remain elevated, favoring diversified fixed-income exposure and companies with limited refinancing needs.
    • Risk to monitor: Disorderly bond-market conditions could eventually spill over into equity valuations, even while earnings remain strong.

Outlook Considerations: Near-term market direction will depend on payroll data, inflation, central-bank guidance, Treasury auction demand, European gas flows and evidence that AI capex converts into revenue and cash flow. The key risk is a simultaneous persistence of high yields, energy inflation and weakening consumer demand.

Assets to Watch

1. AI Infrastructure and Semiconductors — especially Broadcom (AVGO) and Micron Technology (MU)

  • Investment Perspective: This sector is worth watching as AI demand broadens beyond GPUs into custom silicon, networking, memory, optical connectivity and advanced packaging.
  • Comprehensive Reasoning: Hyperscaler capital expenditure is expected to approach $800 billion in 2026, while Broadcom reported AI semiconductor revenue growth of 221% year over year. Micron Technology is positioned at the HBM and DRAM bottleneck, with persistent shortages and take-or-pay commitments supporting near-term visibility. Multiple independent analyses point to tangible orders, backlogs and infrastructure demand rather than purely speculative AI narratives.
  • Risk Considerations: High yields could slow hyperscaler spending, while memory margins and semiconductor pricing may normalize. AVGO also carries exposure to AI-project financing structures, and MU remains cyclical if supply expands faster than demand.

2. AI Power Infrastructure — Vistra (VST) and Constellation Energy (CEG)

  • Investment Perspective: This theme warrants monitoring as electricity availability becomes a strategic constraint on AI deployment.
  • Comprehensive Reasoning: Vistra combines AI-linked power demand with approximately 94% hedging coverage through 2027, providing greater cash-flow visibility in a volatile rate environment. Constellation Energy offers nuclear generation and long-duration contracts tied to hyperscaler demand. The delayed Oracle project demonstrates why secured power, grid access and contracted revenue are increasingly valuable competitive advantages.
  • Risk Considerations: Regulatory delays, financing costs, plant execution and a slowdown in AI data-center construction could reduce the expected demand uplift. High valuations across parts of the power complex also leave less room for execution misses.

3. Agentic Commerce Platforms — Meta (META), Shopify (SHOP) and Expedia (EXPE)

  • Investment Perspective: This group merits attention because AI agents are beginning to alter how consumers discover, compare and purchase products and travel.
  • Comprehensive Reasoning: Meta’s Muse exceeded 730,000 downloads in 10 days, while AI-generated Shopify orders reportedly increased 13-fold. Shopify and Expedia are integrating with the new agent layer, potentially positioning them as transaction infrastructure rather than traffic-dependent intermediaries. Meta could control consumer intent and distribution, while Amazon’s decision to block the agent highlights the strategic importance of customer data and transaction ownership.
  • Risk Considerations: Adoption may not translate into profitable transaction volume. Platform restrictions, privacy regulation, commission pressure and customer-acquisition costs could limit the benefits. Traditional travel and marketplace companies remain vulnerable if agents bypass their owned interfaces.

Trends and Themes

1. AI Investment Is Broadening Beyond GPUs

  • Supporting Evidence: AI demand is spreading across Broadcom (AVGO) custom silicon, Micron Technology (MU) memory, optical networking, cooling, power management and industrial construction. Hyperscaler capex is estimated at approximately $800 billion in 2026, while Chinese industrial and AI investment potential is estimated at up to $12 trillion through 2035.
  • Market Implications: The opportunity set is widening, but investors should distinguish companies with tangible backlogs and cash generation from highly leveraged projects dependent on uninterrupted spending.
  • Time Horizon: Longer term — quarters to years.
  • Convergence Notes: This theme appeared across several independent analyses, sector reviews and macro updates, making it the strongest structural trend of the week.

2. Higher-for-Longer Rates Are Repricing Duration

  • Supporting Evidence: The 10-year Treasury yield exceeded 5.1%, the 30-year exceeded 5.5%, and MOVE rose above 100. Housing, renewable-energy manufacturers, long-duration bonds and richly valued growth stocks came under pressure.
  • Market Implications: Favor shorter-duration credit, cash-generative businesses, insurers and selected financials. Be cautious with TLT, rate-sensitive housing, solar manufacturers such as FSLR, and leveraged infrastructure.
  • Time Horizon: Short to medium term — weeks to quarters, with potential to become structural if fiscal deficits and debt issuance keep term premiums elevated.
  • Convergence Notes: Rate pressure was confirmed by bond-market analysis, macro reports and sector-level weakness in housing, renewables and high-multiple equities.

3. Power Availability and Financing Are Becoming AI Bottlenecks

  • Supporting Evidence: Oracle’s Project Jupiter force majeure notice linked AI deployment problems to power, pipeline and financing constraints. At the same time, utilities and power companies are securing long-duration contracts, while hyperscalers issue substantial debt to fund buildouts.
  • Market Implications: Companies with secured generation, transmission access, hedged cash flows and contracted demand may outperform speculative data-center developers. Credit spreads, project timelines and interconnection approvals are now as important as chip demand.
  • Time Horizon: Longer term — quarters to years.
  • Convergence Notes: The theme was supported by macro, energy, technology and utility commentary, providing strong cross-validation.

4. Agentic AI Is Challenging Digital Commerce Intermediaries

  • Supporting Evidence: Muse reached 730,000 downloads in 10 days, integrated with SHOP and EXPE, and generated sharply higher AI-driven traffic and orders. Amazon blocked the agent, exposing a strategic battle over customer ownership and advertising economics.
  • Market Implications: Open commerce infrastructure and payment networks may gain strategic value, while online travel agencies, marketplaces and retail-media businesses face disintermediation risk. The key test is whether agents create incremental transactions or merely shift economics away from intermediaries.
  • Time Horizon: Medium to long term — quarters to years, with near-term volatility as adoption develops.
  • Convergence Notes: Evidence emerged across consumer, technology, payments and macro commentary, strengthening the signal.

5. Consumer Trade-Down Is Increasing Earnings Dispersion

  • Supporting Evidence: Consumer sentiment fell to 47.8, affordability became a leading political concern, and value retailers outperformed premium discretionary brands. Lululemon (LULU) reported a 10% comparable-sales decline, while staples, discount retailers and essential services remained more resilient.
  • Market Implications: Pricing power, brand relevance and margin control are more important than revenue growth alone. Premium consumer companies, restaurants, housing and travel businesses require closer monitoring of traffic, promotions and financing sensitivity.
  • Time Horizon: Short to medium term — weeks to quarters.
  • Convergence Notes: This pattern appeared in macro data, consumer-sector reports and earnings reactions, indicating a broad rather than isolated shift in spending behavior.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.