Insider Signal Report — 2026-08-25
Scan covers trades filed 2026-08-20 → 2026-08-25 (2-day filing lag accounted for) | 7 qualifying trades scanned | 3 signals detected
★★★★★ Conviction Bottom
Criteria: C-Suite ≥$1M + Prior 30d −10% to −20%
C-suite executive (CEO/CFO/COO/CTO/President/Chairman) buying ≥$1M after the stock declined 10–20% in the prior 30 calendar days. Most robust combined signal in the dataset: ~58–63% win rate, EV +35–40% at 12–15m. Near-term pain is expected — must hold full 12 months.
Target Hold: 12–15 months
| Ticker | Company | Trade Date | Insider | Title | Value | Prior 30d | C-Suite | New Pos | Also Qualifies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAT | American Assets Trust, Inc. | 2026-08-17 | RADY ERNEST S | Executive Chairman | $1.4M | -10.3% | ✓ | — | S2 |
| ALK | ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. | 2026-08-20 | MINICUCCI BENITO | CEO AND PRESIDENT | $1.0M | -11.6% | ✓ | ✓ | S3 |
★★★★ Fresh Conviction Entry
Criteria: New Position + C-Suite + Drawdown ≥10%
C-suite executive initiating a brand-new position (no prior purchase in 2 years) after a ≥10% decline. Deliberate timing: they chose this specific entry point from scratch. ~50–55% win rate at 3–6m; works faster than repeat buyers. Target 6–9m hold.
Target Hold: 6–9 months
| Ticker | Company | Trade Date | Insider | Title | Value | Prior 30d | C-Suite | New Pos | Also Qualifies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST | Vistra Corp. | 2026-08-24 | BURKE JAMES A | President and CEO | $270K | -13.6% | ✓ | ✓ | — |
Notable Buys — No Strategy Match
Trades ≥$500,000 that didn't meet any strategy filter. Often in the −5% to 0% prior-return zone (weakest bucket) or missing price data.
| Ticker | Company | Trade Date | Insider | Title | Value | Prior 30d | C-Suite | New Pos | Also Qualifies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMR | Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. | 2026-08-20 | Courtis Kenneth S. | maybe director | $6.1M | +36.8% | — | — | — |
| AAT | American Assets Trust, Inc. | 2026-08-21 | RADY ERNEST S | Executive Chairman | $1.1M | -5.9% | ✓ | — | — |
| BWA | BORGWARNER INC | 2026-08-19 | Kalathur Rajesh | maybe director | $501K | +7.5% | — | ✓ | — |
Signal Summary
| Rating | Strategy | Signals |
|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | Conviction Bottom | 2 |
| ★★★★ | Informed Accumulation | 0 |
| ★★★★ | Fresh Conviction Entry | 1 |
| ★★★ | Momentum Confirmation | 0 |
| ★★ | Fallen Knife w/ Insider Backstop | 0 |
Generated 2026-08-25 · Strategies based on backtests 2021–2026 on US insider purchases