Insider Signal Report — 2026-08-18
Scan covers trades filed 2026-08-13 → 2026-08-18 (2-day filing lag accounted for) | 18 qualifying trades scanned | 7 signals detected
★★★★★ Conviction Bottom
Criteria: C-Suite ≥$1M + Prior 30d −10% to −20%
C-suite executive (CEO/CFO/COO/CTO/President/Chairman) buying ≥$1M after the stock declined 10–20% in the prior 30 calendar days. Most robust combined signal in the dataset: ~58–63% win rate, EV +35–40% at 12–15m. Near-term pain is expected — must hold full 12 months.
Target Hold: 12–15 months
| Ticker | Company | Trade Date | Insider | Title | Value | Prior 30d | C-Suite | New Pos | Also Qualifies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAT | American Assets Trust, Inc. | 2026-08-10 | RADY ERNEST S | Executive Chairman | $6.6M | -10.3% | ✓ | — | S2 |
| AAT | American Assets Trust, Inc. | 2026-08-14 | RADY ERNEST S | Executive Chairman | $1.1M | -10.6% | ✓ | — | S2 |
★★★★ Fresh Conviction Entry
Criteria: New Position + C-Suite + Drawdown ≥10%
C-suite executive initiating a brand-new position (no prior purchase in 2 years) after a ≥10% decline. Deliberate timing: they chose this specific entry point from scratch. ~50–55% win rate at 3–6m; works faster than repeat buyers. Target 6–9m hold.
Target Hold: 6–9 months
| Ticker | Company | Trade Date | Insider | Title | Value | Prior 30d | C-Suite | New Pos | Also Qualifies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDNL | Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. | 2026-08-14 | Spivey Jeremy Simmons | Chief Executive Officer | $3.2M | -44.3% | ✓ | ✓ | S5 |
| CDNL | Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. | 2026-08-14 | Rowe Michael Bruce Jr. | Chief Financial Officer | $256K | -44.3% | ✓ | ✓ | S5 |
| BTDR | Bitdeer Technologies Group | 2026-08-12 | Potter Michael G | Chief Financial Officer | $226K | -25.6% | ✓ | ✓ | — |
| BTDR | Bitdeer Technologies Group | 2026-08-14 | Basit Haris Fozan | Chief Strategy Officer | $221K | -27.4% | ✓ | ✓ | — |
★★ Fallen Knife w/ Insider Backstop
Criteria: Insider Buy After >40% Prior-Month Decline (Speculative)
Any insider buying after >40% prior-month decline. High variance: catastrophic short-term losses but EV +122% at 15m in historical data. Best for structural overshoots in cyclicals/biotech — NOT for fraud or irreversible competitive decline. Max 2–3% position. Hold ≥15 months.
Target Hold: 15 months (minimum)
| Ticker | Company | Trade Date | Insider | Title | Value | Prior 30d | C-Suite | New Pos | Also Qualifies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDNL | Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. | 2026-08-14 | Wood Benjamin | Chief Operating Officer | $1.0M | -44.3% | ✓ | — | — |
Notable Buys — No Strategy Match
Trades ≥$500,000 that didn't meet any strategy filter. Often in the −5% to 0% prior-return zone (weakest bucket) or missing price data.
| Ticker | Company | Trade Date | Insider | Title | Value | Prior 30d | C-Suite | New Pos | Also Qualifies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | INTEL CORP | 2026-08-11 | TAN LIP BU | CEO | $10.0M | -5.2% | ✓ | ✓ | — |
| CDNL | Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. | 2026-08-14 | Wood Anthony Leon Jr. | maybe director | $2.0M | -44.3% | — | ✓ | — |
| CDNL | Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. | 2026-08-14 | Lee Richard Melvin Jr. | maybe director | $1.3M | -44.3% | — | — | — |
| AME | AMETEK INC/ | 2026-08-11 | Stanage Nick L | maybe director | $1.0M | +10.4% | — | ✓ | — |
| PFE | PFIZER INC | 2026-08-12 | BOURLA ALBERT | Chairman & CEO | $1.0M | +9.4% | ✓ | ✓ | — |
| VIA | Via Transportation, Inc. | 2026-08-10 | Dinur Arnon | maybe director | $999K | +27.3% | — | ✓ | — |
| CDNL | Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. | 2026-08-14 | Zelman Ivy | maybe director | $501K | -44.3% | — | — | — |
Signal Summary
| Rating | Strategy | Signals |
|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | Conviction Bottom | 2 |
| ★★★★ | Informed Accumulation | 0 |
| ★★★★ | Fresh Conviction Entry | 4 |
| ★★★ | Momentum Confirmation | 0 |
| ★★ | Fallen Knife w/ Insider Backstop | 1 |
Generated 2026-08-18 · Strategies based on backtests 2021–2026 on US insider purchases