Daily Commodity Pulse — August 13, 2026

COMMODITY OVERVIEW

Supply-chain fragility and structural electrification demand are driving the strongest commodity themes today. Copper and aluminum face production and logistics constraints, while gold benefits from aggressive institutional accumulation and renewed concern over dollar credibility. Crude is the exception: revised lower 2026 demand forecasts outweighed Middle East supply-risk support, pushing oil lower.

ENERGY

  • Crude oil: Oil futures fell 1.7%, with prices moving from roughly $83 to $81.88 per barrel as revised 2026 demand forecasts overwhelmed the geopolitical risk premium associated with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. The market is shifting from a supply-risk narrative toward a global-growth test; sustained weakness in demand expectations would keep WTI and Brent under pressure despite fragile shipping routes.
  • Natural gas and LNG: Golar LNG’s Hilli FLNG earnings posted triple-digit growth, with its commodity-linked fee structure providing upside when FOB LNG prices exceed $8/MMBtu. That performance confirms that geopolitical volatility and regional gas scarcity are supporting LNG-linked cash flows, although the same bullish exposure leaves producers and infrastructure operators sensitive to any normalization in gas prices.
  • Power and infrastructure: AI and data-center demand is accelerating investment in nuclear generation, transmission, and behind-the-meter power. Oklo’s 1.2 GW agreement with Meta and Fermi’s $6.5 billion agreement to supply 650 MW to TensorWave from 2027 point to a growing market for direct, customer-led power projects that bypass grid bottlenecks.
  • The investment cycle is broadening beyond generation: Caterpillar’s $72 billion order backlog, GE Vernova’s strong share-price performance, and planned 765kV transmission projects in Texas show that grid modernization is becoming a durable source of equipment demand.

METALS

Industrial Metals

  • Copper: Supply constraints remain the dominant bullish signal. Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg output fell 30% year over year because of the continuing mud-rush disruption and delayed ramp-up, while BHP and Southern Copper also reported declining volumes. Strong copper prices are supporting earnings, but the industry is not converting price strength into adequate volume growth, reinforcing the risk of a structural deficit.
  • North American supply development is gaining momentum. Gunnison Copper returned to profitability with support from capital investment and U.S. tax incentives, while NovaRed Mining identified a large deep chargeability anomaly in British Columbia that could represent a porphyry-style deposit. These projects improve the long-term supply outlook but cannot offset near-term disruptions at major producers.
  • Freeport’s insider sale after a 73% one-year share-price gain, combined with Grasberg’s operational weakness and China’s property downturn, creates a near-term valuation risk. The signal is more negative for Freeport equity than for the underlying copper balance.
  • Aluminum: Demand remains structurally firm. Ball reported a 4.3% year-over-year increase in aluminum packaging volumes, confirming substitution away from plastic and glass. North American capacity constraints and operational issues at Millersburg show that supply-chain execution is lagging demand.
  • Norsk Hydro’s alumina production cut at Alunorte, caused by natural-gas disruptions, exposes a new source of supply risk and could tighten global alumina availability. The estimated $75 million–$100 million financial impact highlights the sensitivity of refining capacity to energy infrastructure.
  • Rio Tinto’s 10-year renewable-power agreement for Tomago Aluminium, including $1.1 billion of investment, supports the development of low-carbon aluminum as a differentiated product. Renewable-powered capacity could command a premium as EV, aerospace, and packaging buyers increase emissions requirements.
  • Steel: Rhine water levels have fallen to record lows, disrupting Thyssenkrupp’s raw-material logistics and forcing a shift toward more expensive transport. Further deterioration could reduce European steel output and tighten regional supply.
  • U.S. producers retain a policy advantage. The 25% Section 232 tariffs are supporting Steel Dynamics and other domestic mills by limiting import competition, while data-center construction and manufacturing onshoring provide additional demand. European green-steel investments remain more exposed to carbon prices, policy support, and execution risk.

Precious Metals

  • Gold: The bullish institutional trend remains intact. Global central banks bought 289 tonnes in Q2, while the Bank of Korea made its first gold-related investment in 13 years with a $250 million SPDR Gold Shares purchase. Tether also acquired more than 27 tonnes in H1 2026, taking its holdings to approximately 146 tonnes.
  • Gold has rebounded 6.3% over the past month and is testing resistance near $4,484, identified as the 200-day moving average. A sustained break would strengthen momentum, particularly as fading Fed-tightening expectations, inflation concerns, and declining confidence in the dollar support safe-haven demand.
  • Silver: Pan American Silver’s revenue increased 38.4% year over year, but earnings and revenue missed expectations while production and cost data remained weak. The reported operating metrics at several mines are inconsistent and raise execution and data-quality concerns; the recent 19% share-price rally appears vulnerable if silver prices stop rising.
  • Skeena Resources offers a more constructive project-specific outlook. Its fully permitted Eskay Creek project is under construction and targets initial production in Q2 2027, with potentially significant low-cost silver by-product exposure.

AGRICULTURE

No meaningful agriculture developments were provided today.

MACRO DRIVERS

  • Growth risk is weighing on crude: Lower 2026 oil-demand forecasts are overpowering the geopolitical premium tied to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Dollar and fiscal credibility remain supportive for gold: Central-bank diversification away from Treasuries, inflation concerns, and rising sovereign liabilities are strengthening demand for reserve assets.
  • China remains a two-sided metals driver: The property slump is a near-term headwind for copper and steel demand, while global electrification, renewables, and data-center investment provide stronger structural support.
  • Energy-transition infrastructure is accelerating: AI power demand is drawing capital into nuclear generation, LNG, transmission, and low-carbon aluminum, increasing long-term demand for electricity-intensive metals.

POSITIONING IDEAS

  • Bullish:

    • Gold — central-bank and private-sector accumulation, fading Fed-tightening expectations, and dollar-credibility concerns support continued safe-haven demand. A break above $4,484 would add technical confirmation.
    • Aluminum and alumina — Alunorte’s gas-related production cut and North American capacity constraints tighten near-term supply, while packaging substitution and low-carbon premiums support the longer-term demand outlook.
    • Copper — Grasberg’s 30% volume decline, weaker output from other major producers, and electrification demand reinforce a structural-deficit thesis, despite near-term China risk.
    • U.S. steel — Section 232 tariffs, manufacturing onshoring, and data-center infrastructure support domestic mill margins, particularly for Steel Dynamics and comparable producers.

  • Bearish:

    • Crude oil — revised lower demand forecasts have shifted the market toward a growth-risk narrative, limiting the impact of Middle East supply concerns.
    • Freeport-McMoRan equity — Grasberg’s prolonged production shortfall and insider selling after a major rally create downside risk if copper prices consolidate.
    • Pan American Silver equity — missed estimates, weak mine-level production, elevated costs, and questionable operating metrics make the recent share-price surge difficult to sustain without further silver-price gains.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.