ISM Manufacturing PMI — September 2025
Headline: The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose 0.4 point to 49.1, indicating manufacturing contracted for the seventh consecutive month. The reading was a 6-month high, above the prior six-month average of 48.6 and just above the six-month range of 48.0–49.0. Manufacturing remained below its 50.0 breakeven, but the broader economy continued to grow; the PMI was above the overall-economy breakeven of 42.3.
Sub-indices:
| Index | Level | Prior | Change | Direction | vs 6-mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 48.9 | 51.4 | -2.5 | Contracting | above avg (47.5) |
| Production | 51 | 47.8 | 3.2 | Growing | above avg (47.9) |
| Employment | 45.3 | 43.8 | 1.5 | Contracting | above avg (45.0) |
| Supplier Deliveries | 52.6 | 51.3 | 1.3 | Slowing | below avg (53.3) |
| Inventories | 47.7 | 49.4 | -1.7 | Contracting | below avg (49.7) |
| Customers' Inventories | 43.7 | 44.6 | -0.9 | Too Low | 6-mo low |
| Prices | 61.9 | 63.7 | -1.8 | Increasing | 6-mo low |
| Backlog of Orders | 46.2 | 44.7 | 1.5 | Contracting | above avg (45.2) |
| New Export Orders | 43 | 47.6 | -4.6 | Contracting | below avg (45.5) |
| Imports | 44.7 | 46 | -1.3 | Contracting | below avg (46.4) |
Key moves:
- Production crossed back above 50, rising 3.2 points to 51, while New Orders fell below 50 from 51.4 to 48.9.
- Customers’ Inventories reached a 6-month low of 43.7, reinforcing a potential reorder signal.
- Prices fell to a 6-month low of 61.9, while New Export Orders dropped 4.6 points and remained well below their six-month average.
Insights:
- The production rebound is not yet supported by current demand: New Orders contracted at 48.9, and New Export Orders weakened to 43.0. The simultaneous contraction in manufacturers’ Inventories to 47.7 points to leaner stocks rather than an inventory buildup ahead of stronger orders.
- Customers’ Inventories at 43.7—the lowest reading in six months and classified as “Too Low”—is a constructive forward signal, as low channel inventories can require replenishment. This is tempered by the continued contraction in Backlogs, now at 46.2 after 36 months below 50.
- Supplier Deliveries at 52.6 indicate slower deliveries, consistent with some demand or supply-chain tightness, although the reading remained below its six-month average of 53.3. The signal is therefore supportive but not indicative of a broad acceleration.
- Several month-over-month improvements remain below 50: Employment rose 1.5 points but stayed in contraction at 45.3, and the headline PMI improved while manufacturing remained in contraction. Labor demand therefore remains a material drag.
- Input-cost pressure eased but remained elevated: Prices declined 1.8 points to 61.9, still indicating rising costs and continued margin and goods-inflation pressure despite being a six-month low.
Breadth & prices: Five industries reported growth and none were listed as contracting. Input prices continued to increase, but at a slower rate, with the Prices index at 61.9.
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